Q1 Employment Outlook

UK Employment Outlook for Q1 2023

In the latest edition of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey of 2,030 employers, employers continue to hire in Q1 2023, reporting a seasonally adjusted, Net Employment Outlook of +19%. Hiring intentions decrease both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year by -5% and -15%, respectively.

Employers Anticipate High Demand for Talent Across Key Sectors

Organisations in the IT industry report the most optimistic Outlook (+34%), followed by Industrials & Materials (+25%) and Transport, Logistics & Automotive (+24%).

*Government or Public Service; Not for Profit/NGO/Charity/Religious organization; Other Industry; Other Transport, Logistics & Automobiles Sub-Industry; Educational Institutions; Agriculture & Fishing

Micro Organisations Brace Themselves for Q1

Companies with fewer than 10 employees are significantly less optimistic compared to medium and large organisations to hire from January to March, reflecting concerns at rising costs, declining consumer confidence and a looming recession.

Employer Hiring Expectations for January – March

When considering how staffing levels will change during the first quarter, employers in 38 of 41 countries and territories anticipate a net positive hiring Outlook.

Moderate Hiring Expected in the First Quarter of 2023

With stable outlooks across the regions, employers in North America (+31%) reported the strongest hiring intentions, followed by South and Central America (+28%), Asia Pacific (+25%), and EMEA (+18%).

Growth Expected
Across All UK Regions

The North East is the most optimistic region this quarter, with an Outlook of +27%, a one percentage-point increase on the last quarter but seven points weaker on last year.

Yorkshire & Humberside (+4%) and the East Midlands (+6%) report the weakest Outlooks, with a decrease of -20 and -15 percentage points compared to Q4.

Employers in the West Midlands (+11%) report slowing confidence for a second consecutive quarter marking a 20 percentage-point drop since Q3.

Scotland (+26%) has dropped 10 percentage-points since last quarter, while Wales (+25%) has climbed by seven percentage-points.