UK EN Q1 2023 MEOS Report

Organisations in the IT industry report the most optimistic Outlook (+34%); followed by Industrials & Materials (+25%), and Transport, Logistics &...

MEOS | 2023 <big><big><big><big><big><big>Q1

UK Employers to Keep Hiring in Q1 Despite Economic Uncertainty

Executive Summary

Used internationally as a bellwether of economic and labour market trends, the Net Employment Outlook – calculated by subtracting the percentage of employers who anticipate reductions to staffing levels from those who plan to hire – now stands at +19%, down (-5%) from Q4 and (-15%) than this time last year.

Organisations in the IT industry report the most optimistic Outlook (+34%); followed by Industrials & Materials (+25%), and Transport, Logistics & Automotive (+24%).

The brightest hiring intentions for next quarter are in the North East (+27%), the East (+26%) and Wales (+25%), with the weakest Outlook in the East Midlands (+6%) and Yorkshire & Humberside (+4%).

Large organisations (250+ employees) are the most likely to hire (+25%) compared to micro employers (less than 10) with an Outlook of +9%.

<img src=https://4674640.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4674640/Icons/icon4-150.png> Q1 Employment Outlook

UK Employment Outlook for Q1 2023

In the latest edition of the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey of 2,030 employers, employers continue to hire in Q1 2023, reporting a seasonally adjusted, Net Employment Outlook of +19%. Hiring intentions decrease both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year by -5% and -15%, respectively.

Employers Anticipate High Demand for Talent Across Key Sectors

Organisations in the IT industry report the most optimistic Outlook (+34%), followed by Industrials & Materials (+25%) and Transport, Logistics & Automotive (+24%).

*Government or Public Service; Not for Profit/NGO/Charity/Religious organization; Other Industry; Other Transport, Logistics & Automobiles Sub-Industry; Educational Institutions; Agriculture & Fishing

Micro Organisations Brace Themselves for Q1

Companies with fewer than 10 employees are significantly less optimistic compared to medium and large organisations to hire from January to March, reflecting concerns at rising costs, declining consumer confidence and a looming recession.

Employer Hiring Expectations for January – March

When considering how staffing levels will change during the first quarter, employers in 38 of 41 countries and territories anticipate a net positive hiring Outlook.

Moderate Hiring Expected in the First Quarter of 2023

With stable outlooks across the regions, employers in North America (+31%) reported the strongest hiring intentions, followed by South and Central America (+28%), Asia Pacific (+25%), and EMEA (+18%).

Growth Expected
Across All UK Regions

The North East is the most optimistic region this quarter, with an Outlook of +27%, a one percentage-point increase on the last quarter but seven points weaker on last year.

Yorkshire & Humberside (+4%) and the East Midlands (+6%) report the weakest Outlooks, with a decrease of -20 and -15 percentage points compared to Q4.

Employers in the West Midlands (+11%) report slowing confidence for a second consecutive quarter marking a 20 percentage-point drop since Q3.

Scotland (+26%) has dropped 10 percentage-points since last quarter, while Wales (+25%) has climbed by seven percentage-points.

<img src=https://4674640.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4674640/Icons/icon8-150.png> How Today’s Trends are Impacting Jobs

Consumer Goods & Services

of Wholesale & Retail Trade employers report difficulty finding the skills required*

38% of employers within the Consumer Goods & Services industry report expectations to add to their staff during the first quarter, while 19% anticipate various decreases.

*The UK 2022 Talent Shortage Report, ManpowerGroup

Once seasonally adjusted, this points to a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +19%, no change compared to the previous quarter but a weakening of 14 percentage points over the previous year.

Despite strong optimism to hire, the industry faces a talent shortage where 75% of employers report difficulty finding the hard and soft skills needed.

Net Employment Outlook anticipated by hiring managers in the Energy & Utilities industry

36% of employers within the Energy & Utilities industry report expectations to add to their staff during the first quarter, while 15% anticipate various decreases.

Once seasonally adjusted, this points to a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +21%.

Energy & Utilities

Financials &
Real Estate

of Financials & Real Estate employers report difficulty finding the skills required*

41% of employers within the Financials & Real Estate industry report expectations to add to their staff during the first quarter, while 23% anticipate various decreases.

*The UK 2022 Talent Shortage Report, ManpowerGroup

Once seasonally adjusted, this points to a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +18%, weakening significantly by 22 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and by 26 percentage points since last year.

Despite strong optimism to hire, the industry faces a talent shortage where 80% of employers report difficulty finding the hard and soft skills needed.

Net Employment Outlook anticipated by hiring managers in the Communication Services industry

33% of employers within the Communication Services industry report expectations to add to their staff during the first quarter, while 15% anticipate various decreases. Once seasonally adjusted, this points to a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +18%, weakening by 16 percentage points over the last quarter and by 20 points compared to last year.

Communication Services

Industrials
& Materials

of Employers in the Manufacturing industry report difficulty finding the skills required*

38% of employers within the Industrials & Materials industry report expectations to add to their staff during the first quarter, while 16% anticipate various decreases.

*The UK 2022 Talent Shortage Report, ManpowerGroup

Once seasonally adjusted, this points to a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +25%, weakening by eight percentage points over the last quarter and by seven percentage points since last year.

Despite strong optimism to hire, the industry faces a talent shortage where 73% of employers report difficulty finding the hard and soft skills needed.

Net Employment Outlook anticipated by hiring managers in the Transport, Logistics & Automotive industry

45% of employers within the Transport, Logistics & Automotive industry report expectations to add to their staff during the first quarter, while 21% anticipate various decreases. Once seasonally adjusted, this points to a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +24%, an increase of 20 percentage points since the last quarter but a decrease of 25 percentage points since last year.

Transport, Logistics & Automotive

Information Technology

of Information Technology (IT) Employers report difficulty finding the skills required*

51% of employers within the IT industry report expectations to add to their staff during the first quarter, while 17% anticipate various decreases.

*The UK 2022 Talent Shortage Report, ManpowerGroup

Once seasonally adjusted, this points to a Net Employment Outlook (NEO) of +34%, the same as last quarter but a decrease of 16 percentage points compared to last year.

Despite strong optimism to hire, the industry faces a talent shortage where 83% of employers report difficulty finding the hard and soft skills needed.

<img src=https://4674640.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4674640/Icons/icon16-150.png> Workforce Trends & Challenges

The Trends Driving Transformation are Not New, but Newly Urgent

This recovery is unlike any we have ever seen – demand for skills is at record highs in many markets and unemployment levels remain high while workforce participation stagnates. Uneven economic growth continues with some markets recovering while others lag from soaring inflation and high cost of living.

<img src=https://4674640.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/4674640/Icons/icon19-150.png> About the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

About the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey

The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most comprehensive, forward-looking employment survey of its kind, used globally as a key economic indicator. The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity. Running since 1962, various factors underpin the success of the Survey:

Unique
It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus. The ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Independent
The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup’s customer base.

Robust
The survey is based on interviews with nearly 39,000 public and private employers across 41 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Focused
For more than six decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question: “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of March 2023 as compared to the current quarter?”

Survey Methodology

The methodology used to collect the data for the Employment Outlook has been digitised in 41 markets for the Q1 2023 report.

Responses prior to Q1 2022 were contacted via telephone and are now collected in a double opt-in online panels where members are incentivised to complete the survey.

The question asked and the respondent profile remains unchanged. Size of organisation and sector are standardised across all countries and territories to allow international comparisons.